The Euro-Mediterranean Blue Transition Scenario 2050

EMEA-EMNES Study – June 2021

The study aims to provide a quantified projection of the Blue Transition scenario (the study published by EMEA in 2020) using a CGE (computable general equilibrium) model (GEM-E3-MENA) that is calibrated to the latest available data. The model-based analysis aims at providing a consistent projection of the energy and economic systems for the Euro-Mediterranean (EU-MED) countries within the Blue Transition narrative. The analysis takes into account the capacity constraints and the comparative advantages for growth of each country. The key contribution of the model, used for this study, lies in its capacity to combine the different set of assumptions regarding: technical progress; population growth; bilateral trade; development of skilled labour; climate-change and energy related policies, in an integrated manner that ensures the consistency of the socio-economic projection. An important result of the analysis is the decomposition of growth into specific factors and sectors for each country. About the Authors: Ioannis Charalampidis (Researcher), Panagiotis Karkatsoulis (Researcher) and Leonidas Paroussos (Managing Director) at E3MLab, Associate member of EMNES. The study is reviewed by Prof. Rym Ayadi President of EMEA and Director of EMNES and Carlo Sessa is Member of the Executive Board of EMEA and Associate Member of EMNES.